EU elections: What governance for tomorrow’s Europe?

Following the European elections that took place from the 23rd to 26th May 2019, many surprises have occurred according to the votes. What will be the next key dates to watch over and possible governance impacts on the ECB?

Véronique Janod, Macro Economic Research - France, Belgium, Eurozone provides you her analysis of the global results following the European elections in this podcast to listen:

Natixis Podcast _ Expert Reaction 28-05-19 EU ELECTIONS I What governance for tomorrow’s Europe?  by Véronique Janod

 

 

 

What are the key aftermath and main surprises now that the European elections are over?

First, no populist wave has risen at the European level. Previously, there was 205 Populists MP at the Parliament. And now, according to the forecast of the future Parliament, we are going to have only 210 Populists MP, which means that only 5 more representatives will be Populists. But, in reality, it is going to be less because after the Brexit, 33 UK MPs will leave the Parliament. The power of the Populists will probably be less important than before.

Secondly, we can see that it will be the end of the historical coalition between what we call the EPP – namely the European People Party and an alliance of the Socialists and Democrats. Why is that? Because the rise of the Green Party and of the alliance of the Liberal and Democrats, which are at the center of the Parliament, increase a lot. We are going to have a coalition between at least three parties. It is not easy to see which one will be a part of it.

Because we don't have a coalition of two parties able to win the majority, it is going to be a little bit trickier this year to find who is going to be the next president of the European Commission. As you know, Jean-Claude Juncker has to be replaced by the 31st of October. And the lost of power of the two traditional main group at the European Parliament makes this election less easy than normally. Normally, if everything goes smooth, it should be the EPP Spitzen candidate Manfred Weber who is a German coming from the CSU to most likely become the next president of the European Commission. But this is not done. Indeed, the rise of the Centre and the Green still give good chance to Franz Timmermans who belongs to the Liberal and Democrat party to be potentially the next one. The choice of the president of the European Commission is crucial as it will have huge consequence for the nomination of the next president of the ECB – European Central Bank. Indeed, there is a tacit rule that follows as such: normally we try to give the key position at the European institution to different kind of member of States to balance the power among the member States. If Manfred Weber becomes the next president of the European Commission, then it is very unlikely that another German representative will lead the European Central Bank.

 

To sum up:

  • There is no populist wave at the European level.
  • We are probably going to have a coalition to get a majority at the European Parliament that is composed by at least three parties.
  • The choice of the next European Commission president will be very important to get an idea who will be the next ECB's governor.

 

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